DadBodFootball - NFL Week 13 Early Lines, Totals, and Implied Totals
Donuts, Spiked Coffee, and High School Football
This next bit has nothing to do with the model, DBF, or sports betting theory - so if you’re not interested in my hero/villain origin story…. skip below for the lines, totals, etc….
To me, there is no greater tradition than Football and Thanksgiving. Growing up, my very Baltimore, very blue-collar Italian family would get together and tailgate for a highschool rivalry game in the Memorial Stadium parking lot. We’d sit around, eating donuts, drinking coffee/hot chocolate, and trying to catch a football that got ever closer and closer to the rival tailgate next to ours. This was a rare opportunity for all of us to come together and celebrate a sport that we loved in a city that represented a formative place for so many of us.
These Thursday, High School football matchups were bittersweet for my uncles and grandfather because they not only served as reminders of the passage of time, but also of a love for NFL football that had been so needlessly ripped away.
Those of you old enough to remember (or well-versed in Football lore) will recall that the city of Baltimore was home to a championship football team well before the Ravens. Much like the Ravens of today, the Colts represented the city of Baltimore’s rough, blue collar background - that abruptly ended when their owner, Robert Irsay, packed the team up overnight and moved them out of town (Go Shit In A Hat, Irsay). For 12 long years, the city of Baltimore was reduced to cheering for our beloved O’s, but were never quite able to find a suitable fill-in for the true Colts of the NFL.
Then in 1995, it happened. It was announced that the Cleveland Browns would be moving to Baltimore and becoming the NFL’s newest expansion team, the Baltimore Ravens. For a city that bled Orange and Blue, this represented a moment of closure in a very painful time for what was a sports starved city. The city began construction of a new stadium (now M&T Bank, then PSI Net) that would serve as the home to the Baltimore Ravens and the site of the Baltimore Turkey-Bowl starting in 1998.
Suddenly, our Thanksgiving mornings were significantly less nostalgic as we no longer watched the games in a stadium filled with only memories, but in one that represented so much promise.
I won’t belabor a point any more than I already have, it certainly helped that the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001 - but my true love of football grew from those Turkey Bowl days where we celebrated the love of a game that could so completely define a city. For without the Ravens, Maryland wouldn’t have it’s “Football and Crabcakes” (and that’s what Maryland does)….
PS: Major shoutout to Detroit Lions fans everywhere - every single one of them has similar feelings about their team and the meaning of football to their family’s Thanksgiving traditions. Seriously, an awesome franchise, and if my Birds don’t make it to the Super Bowl, I’m putting on an ARSB jersey and biting kneecaps with y’all.
Early Spreads, Totals
Note: I model every matchup’s spread, total, and implied totals leveraging a data model rooted in historical (3+ seasons) worth of offensive and defensive scoring, team-specific efficiency (i.e. Red Zone TD %s), home and road performance, and variables like injuries to QBs, new head coaches, and Matt Patricia.
The only updates I generally make are to the variables - i.e. If Brock Purdy is unable to go this week.
Columns Explained
DBF Line - the model’s calculated line for the game
Real Line - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
DBF O/U - the model’s expected point total for the game
Real O/U - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
The DELTA - the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total provided by most betting sites. The higher the delta (in either direction) the more confident we are in the bet because, according to the data, the spread/total/implied total should be lower or higher than it is.
Lines will move throughout the week, so if the DELTA (the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total) is small, there’s a good chance that the guidance will go to neutral or to the other team as the week evolves.
Implied Totals
For those new to implied totals (or wondering what the heck I’m talking about) - an Implied Total is the expected points for ONE team in a matchup (with a TOTAL being both teams).
DBF Data points - Interpreting Implied Totals: In the DBF Tracker above, I include the Implied Total and delta to two other important data points
Average Points Scored: Informs how many points a team scores on average against a neutral opponent
DBF Points Expected: The Model’s output for expected points including adjustments for opponent defense, weather, home/road performance, injuries
This allows us to calculate the DOUBLE DELTA - how far off both average points and DBF Expected Points an implied total is. The more negative or positive, the more… theoretically… likely it is to be OVER or UNDER.
Lines I Expect To Move This Week
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Current Spread: KC -12.5
Predicted Spread: KC - 11.5 to 11
Justification: Kansas City SHOULD win this game, but if history is any indication, divisional matchups, large spreads, and low totals usually favor the underdog to cover. I’m not betting the LV ML, but I’d gladly take +12.5 points.
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders
Current Spread: Washington -5.5
Predicted Spread: Washington -4.5
Justification: Bettors and books are going to look to a hot Tennessee team against a Commanders team whose QB is starting to show that the rookie wall is real. I predict that this line gradually moves towards the Titans throughout the week (I’m seriously entertaining a Titans ML bet).
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Total: 46.5
Predicted Total: 45.5 - 46
Justification: This is a “wait and see” total for me… The Bucs boast the number 3 offense but the number 26 defense, so I’ll gladly let the points total settle a bit and bet the over. My guess is that books and bettors will start taking the UNDER predicting a lackluster showing for Bryce Young after looking passable against the Chiefs. Zig when others Zag…
Return Of The Power Rankings
There’s a longer form post explaining this section from Week 11’s DBF Edition - please note that this takes SEASON long performance in to account, so it’s what the underlying data is telling us rather than momentum/ratings/clickbait.
The Turkey Day Football - 4 Bets I Like and 1 Bet I Don’t…
Let’s add some Diesel Gravy* to the mashed potatoes slate of games and highlight 4 bets I like and one that I don’t… I’m forcing myself to make picks for each game in a Thursday tradition… So keep in mind that these are not the bets I love for the weekend, but just for this slate of games.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions -10; Chicago Under 19.5
The Lions are hot, playing at home, and the Bears are coming of their “we just changed up our coaching staff so we better look good” game. The Lions boast a top 5 defense and unlike the Vikings, don’t appear to have an ability to vomit repeatedly all over themselves…
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys ML; parlay with OVER 37.5
Neither of these teams are particularly impressive on offense, but they might both be so bad on defense that this game is interesting. Tracy will run loose, Ceedee and Turpin will be wide open… and in reality, this game will come down to who can score last (my money is on the Cowboys as the sun is setting on Mike McCarthy).
Miami Dolphins ML or -3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
This game could very quickly turn in to a reality check for the surging Dolphins, but I see it as a letdown for the Packers after an emotional win against the 49ers last week. Model feels the line of -3.5 is fair, but not every home favorite is going to win and cover…
Las Vegas Raiders +12.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Low total (under 43.5 points), large spread (>7 points) games favor the underdog to cover in 66% of matchups (S/O to digging in to this earlier in the season). I’m going with history here, and no… I don’t think the Raiders will WIN, I just think they’ll backdoor limp in to a cover.
THE BET(s) I DON’T LIKE
Any of the Thursday or Friday Totals outside of NY/Dallas. All feel fair/are already tilted towards the side I would take, so I’ll be playing those Implied Totals instead.
*Diesel Gravy is 1 cup of beef stock, all turkey drippings including spare parts that may have fallen in, half a bag of Type “00” flour (for bite), and a fifth of Jack Daniels (for mouth feel) - Recipe C/O my buddy, Chef Boy R Blackout….