DadBodFootball Week 17 NFL Picks Against The Spread, Totals, and Implied Totals
Spreads, Totals, Implied Totals, and "End Of Season" Power Rankings
We’ve hit the final two weeks of the season - where the playoff picture is more or less solidified, but there are still a few teams scrapping for the final spot(s). NFL Schedule makers have once again found a way to hold a few meaningful games in a slate of many, many bad matchups. If I had to stack rank games and their implications….
Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (12/25) - With a win, Kansas City will tie up home field advantage through the entire playoffs (and the AFC regular season title). With a loss, the Steelers will fall 1 game behind the Baltimore Ravens and have to play a scrappy Bengals team in week 18.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (12/29) - the Commanders need to continue to string together wins to grab on to the #2 wildcard seed. The Falcons need to continue to win to hold their lead on the NFC South.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (12/29) - though both teams are firmly in the playoff picture, this game has lasting implications as to wildcard seedings and who has to play the streaking Eagles in the first round.
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals (12/28) - The Broncos and Bengals both have wild-card aspirations, with the Bengals needing a win in week 17 and 18 (when they play the Steelers).
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans (12/25) - The Texans have the AFC South wrapped up, while the Ravens can win the AFC North by winning out and hoping that the Steelers lose one of the next two (Chiefs and Bengals). That said, no team likes to lose to a potential playoff matchup.
All in all - these games represent opportunities to also evaluate betting opportunities as it is easier to rely on outcomes when both teams have something to gain. I’d advocate also evaluating your bets for games where either one team has packed it in for the season (anyone playing the Jets) or where both teams are playing for draft position (Giants vs. Colts, Raiders vs. Saints, Titans vs, Jaguars).
Chasing Zebras - “Finish Line” Power Rankings
The greatest intrigue is at the top of this list - but it is helpful to understand if teams will underperform to secure a higher draft position. Keep in mind this isn’t showing if a team will give up, but how they’re trending to end the season.
DBF Score: This is what ultimately drives the ranking - it is a composite score of the teams relative efficiency on both offense and defense. The Ravens are a great example where their offense is carrying a spectacularly mediocre defense.
DBF Offense / Defense Rank: How a team compares to the entire league on both offense and defense. There’s a lot more that goes in to the weekly Spread/Total/Implied Total calculations, but this is a simple enough way to understand what offenses and defenses are over/under performing.
Points Scored Per Game: Simple - total points scored divided by number of games played
Projected Points Scored Per Game: This is where the model becomes part art and part science… it calculates a weekly total for each team relative to existing variables and historical performance (i.e. how the 14th ranked offense would perform across a season where the average - 16th ranked offense - puts up XXX points). You’ll note that the Dolphins are expected to rank much higher to end the season than they performed historically.
Points Allowed Per Game: Total points allowed divided by number of games played
Projected Points Allowed Per Game: Similar to Projected Points Scored Per Game - this is how the defense can be expected to perform for the rest of the season given historical trends and averages.
Spreads, Totals
Note: I model every matchup’s spread, total, and implied totals leveraging a data model rooted in historical (3+ seasons) worth of offensive and defensive scoring, team-specific efficiency (i.e. Red Zone TD %s), home and road performance, and variables like injuries to QBs, new head coaches, and Matt Patricia.
The only updates I generally make are to the variables - i.e. Davante Adams is unable to go this week. Lines will move throughout the week, so if the DELTA (the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total) is small, there’s a good chance that the guidance will go to neutral or to the other team as the week evolves.
NOTE - These are the spreads, totals as of Tuesday, December 24… please know they’ll move throughout the week and guidance may shift.
Columns Explained
DBF Line - the model’s calculated line for the game
Real Line - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
DBF O/U - the model’s expected point total for the game
Real O/U - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
The DELTA - the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total provided by most betting sites. The higher the delta (in either direction) the more confident we are in the bet because, according to the data, the spread/total/implied total should be lower or higher than it is.
Implied Totals
For those new to implied totals (or wondering what the heck I’m talking about) - an Implied Total is the expected points for ONE team in a matchup (with a TOTAL being both teams).
DBF Data points - Interpreting Implied Totals: In the DBF Tracker below, I include the Implied Total and delta to two other important data points
Average Points Scored: Informs how many points a team scores on average against a neutral opponent
DBF Points Expected: The Model’s output for expected points including adjustments for opponent defense, weather, home/road performance, injuries
This allows us to calculate the DOUBLE DELTA - how far off both average points and DBF Expected Points an implied total is. The more negative or positive, the more… theoretically… likely it is to be OVER or UNDER.
We can use Thursday’s Lions vs. Packers matchup - where the model loved the OVER on the Lions Implied Total of 27.5 (Double Delta 6.5). This is 4.4 points below their per game scoring average (31.9) and 2.1 points below their expected points against the Packer’s defense (29.6). Add those together for… 6.5 Double Delta.
Winning Quadrants - Do Teams Win And How?
This is a mainstay of the weekly post - visit Week 10 of the 2023 season for a longer description Winning Quadrants graphic from Week 10.
Y-AXIS Net Points: The “higher” a team is on the Y Axis - the more team “Wins” by, and the “lower” - the more a team loses by.
X-AXIS Average Total Points (net 2023 NFL Scoring average of ~43.8 PPG) -The left-most teams participate in games with the lowest TOTAL points - the right-most teams participate in the highest scoring games. I netted (subtracted) season scoring average to show if they are above or below the average game.
How can you use this? Well - it’s an interesting way of aligning our “feel” about certain teams - the Ravens tend to win and score a lot of points - and identify how they generally align against their spreads/totals.
Picks for Week 17
Rather than pick the games, I’ll give you bets for each of the 5 “focused” matchups above (in the order in which they are played)
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - UNDER 42.5.
This is a bad matchup for the Steelers and though they’re returning Pickens, a short week after a big loss to the Ravens usually means a letdown against a Chief’s team that would love nothing more than to have a bye in week 18. Expect a low scoring game that will come down to a field goal or two.
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs. Houston Texans, UNDER 46.5
The Ravens are starting to find their stride on the offensive and defensive side of the ball after re-arranging their secondary. The Texans are depleted on the offensive side of the ball, but their defensive line is one of the tops in the league. I expect this game to be closer than many anticipate as the defensive line of the Texans will keep Lamar in check, but the Texans may struggle to score.
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Broncos OVER 22.5
The Broncos are a wagon and while the Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives, I can’t see the Bengals’ defense being able to keep the Broncos offense in check.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders -4, Falcons UNDER 21
Penix made a solid debut but it’s hard to look beyond the score and remember that the Falcons defense had two touchdowns and a handful of field-changing plays. The Commanders should put a bit more pressure on Penix than the lowly Giants and this game will show if the Falcons offense can keep up with the high powered Commanders offense (surprise… I don’t think they can).
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings -2; UNDER 48.5
Divisional Matchups - I’ll always take the home team and the UNDER when I don’t have a great read / feel for the game.
That's going to be a no on the under 42.5