DadBodFootball - NFL Week 9 Early Lines, Totals, and Implied Totals

Eat A W

What’s worse than going 0-4 in your fantasy leagues? Watching your beloved Ravens drop 3 game sealing INTs to lose to Jameis Winston in what can only be described as an offkilter performance… But that’s the NFL for you.

The early slate of games (1 PM EST kickoff) showed great promise in terms of chaos for gamblers on an NFL Sunday. We saw 6 favorites fail to cover, and 4 fail to win outright. The Lions tripled their -12.5 point spread - winning 52 to 14 while not passing for more than 100 yards on offense. The later slate of games provided some much needed stability with home teams covering 6 of 7 spreads, including one where they were an 8.5 point underdog (Raiders 20, Chiefs 27).

I’m sure most everyone’s parlays were blown up before the evening, but if you, like me, decided to reup on the second slate of games - they largely followed the model. Interestingly enough, the early slate of games was more favorable to expected scoring game scripts as the model went 7/8 on spreads - with the lone loss being the UNDER in the Jets - Patriots Game.

Speaking of the Jets - I can’t remember seeing a more talented roster fail to live up to expectations due to horrific coaching - at least since the 2011 Eagles (or the 2024 Ravens defense).

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Early Spreads, Totals

Note: I model every matchup’s spread, total, and implied totals leveraging a data model rooted in historical (3+ seasons) worth of offensive and defensive scoring, team-specific efficiency (i.e. Red Zone TD %s), home and road performance, and variables like injuries to QBs, new head coaches, and Matt Patricia.

The DELTA - the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total provided by most betting sites. The higher the delta (in either direction) the more confident we are in the bet because, according to the data, the spread/total/implied total should be lower or higher than it is.

Lines will move throughout the week, so if the DELTA (the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total) is small, there’s a good chance that the guidance will go to neutral or to the other team as the week evolves.

The only updates I generally make are to the variables - i.e. If Derek Carr is unable to go this week.

Note on Totals - The OVER carried 11 of 16 matches and scoring continues an upward (conservative) trend. I really don’t believe the OVER guidance in the New Orleans vs. Carolina matchup as neither team has proven capable of scoring in recent weeks (plus the Panthers seem to be mailing it in with their recent trades).

Implied Totals

For those new to implied totals (or wondering what the heck I’m talking about) - an Implied Total is the expected points for ONE team in a matchup (with a TOTAL being both teams).

DBF Data points - Interpreting Implied Totals: In the DBF Tracker below, I include the Implied Total and delta to two other important data points

• Average Points Scored: Informs how many points a team scores on average against a neutral opponent

• DBF Points Expected: The Model’s output for expected points including adjustments for opponent defense, weather, home/road performance, injuries

This allows us to calculate the DOUBLE DELTA - how far off both average points and DBF Expected Points an implied total is. The more negative or positive, the more… theoretically… likely it is to be OVER or UNDER.

Implied Total Notes - The Browns are predicted to have a meteoric crash back to reality playing the impressive chargers defense this week. I actually expect the Dolphins to fare better than their delta would suggest but do not expect them to cover their implied total against the Bills.

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The Thursday Night Football - Twist My Arm Pick

My hatred of betting on Thursday Night Football is well documented - from a modeling perspective, these games…

• Favor the Over - 53.5% of games hit the OVER, compared to ~44% of Sunday/Monday games.

• Favor The Home Team To Win and Cover - 63.6% of home teams win, compared to 54.5% of Sunday/Monday games.

In what is effectively a pick-em game, I’m taking the points and the Texans (+1.5 as I write this). CJ Stroud and the Texans offense has been more or less average this year, but they’re getting it done with a relatively conservative output, and I still don’t trust the Jets to figure it out after losing to the Patriots.

My favorite bet in this game is the UNDER (42). I expect this to be a 20 - 16 type final score with the Texans defense intercepting Rodgers to end the game. The Jets are averaging 19 PPG and the Texans defense is statistically average, but do have a high pressure rate and are a facing a mediocre Jet’s offensive line.