DadBodFootball - NFL Week 15 Early Lines, Totals, and Implied Totals
Yelling In To The Void
You ever have those weekends where you cash out a parlay too soon or watch every matchup of a ten leg parlay hit but one? Well, that was me last weekend too. The Clemson Tigers somehow held out against an SMU stampede in the second half but I cashed a 4 leg parlay for $60 and not the $120 it would have netted had I just held firm.
Then, on Sunday, I placed an “early game window” largely ML parlay and decided to go with my gut that the Titans would wallop the Jags, so I took the spread (-3.5). After they spent most of the game clinging to a 3-0 lead… I decided to hold firm and not cash the parlay (effectively at buy in)… Sure enough they turn the ball over twice in the redzone, the Jags score a TD, and then they have another turnover on the last minute drive that could have potentially resulted in over time.
Such is life - sometimes you’re on fire, and other times you’re cold as ice… Just ask Dave Portnoy.
Early Spreads, Totals
Note: I model every matchup’s spread, total, and implied totals leveraging a data model rooted in historical (3+ seasons) worth of offensive and defensive scoring, team-specific efficiency (i.e. Red Zone TD %s), home and road performance, and variables like injuries to QBs, new head coaches, and Matt Patricia.
The only updates I generally make are to the variables - i.e. who starts at QB for the Giants (DeVito!!!)
Columns Explained
DBF Line - the model’s calculated line for the game
Real Line - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
DBF O/U - the model’s expected point total for the game
Real O/U - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
The DELTA - the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total provided by most betting sites. The higher the delta (in either direction) the more confident we are in the bet because, according to the data, the spread/total/implied total should be lower or higher than it is.
Lines will move throughout the week, so if the DELTA (the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total) is small, there’s a good chance that the guidance will go to neutral or to the other team as the week evolves.
Implied Totals
For those new to implied totals (or wondering what the heck I’m talking about) - an Implied Total is the expected points for ONE team in a matchup (with a TOTAL being both teams).
DBF Data points - Interpreting Implied Totals: In the DBF Tracker above, I include the Implied Total and delta to two other important data points
Average Points Scored: Informs how many points a team scores on average against a neutral opponent
DBF Points Expected: The Model’s output for expected points including adjustments for opponent defense, weather, home/road performance, injuries
This allows us to calculate the DOUBLE DELTA - how far off both average points and DBF Expected Points an implied total is. The more negative or positive, the more… theoretically… likely it is to be OVER or UNDER.
Lines I Would Lock In Early
I’m shifting the focus of this section to cover lines that I feel may move and would consider locking in early. Why would you do this? If you suspect a +15 spread might move to +13… and you like the points… better to be +15 now than +13 later.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
Current Spread: Kansas City -4
Predicted Spread: Kansas City -6
Justification: Bettors will see what the Steeler’s defense did to Jameis and expect an arguably better secondary for the Chiefs to do much the same. I’d take the Chiefs at -4 (no brainer) as I expect this line to move to KC - 6 by the weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Current Spread: Tampa Bay +3
Predicted Spread: Tampa Bay +2
Justification: Herbert is injured, Ladd is injured, and the Chargers are without JK Dobbins. This is a team limping towards the playoff finish line playing against the only team to beat both the NFC leading Lions and Eagles. I’m taking Tampa Bay +3 all day even if the model (again based on season long scoring averages.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
Current Total: 54.5
Predicted Total: 52
Justification: The Lions have found a way to survive the injuries to their defensive interior and are a playing a Bills team that just gave up 40+ points to the Rams - consider this a get right opportunity. I’d personally lock in the UNDER 54.5 and expect this to be a slow placed game that ends up around 45 total points.
The Thursday Night Football - Twist My Arm Pick
My hatred of betting on Thursday Night Football is well documented - from a modeling perspective, these games…
Favor the Over - 53.5% of games hit the OVER, compared to ~44% of Sunday/Monday games.
Favor The Home Team To Win and Cover - 63.6% of home teams win, compared to 54.5% of Sunday/Monday games.
I want no parts of this game… Lord knows what the 49ers are capable of, but they’re still in the playoff hunt in their division and have a vitally important game against the Rams. The Rams are starting to peak with Stafford at the helm, but their defense is suspect despite a strong front 4.
My guess is this ends up a Rams win (+2.5) and will hit the UNDER 49. Again, this goes against everything the model predicts and we saw this last week with the Home Team winning (and pushing) and the Over hitting handedly. That said, I make this predictions to be laughed at and with my heart (not my head) so caveat emptor.