DadBodFootball - NFL Week 14 Early Lines, Totals, and Implied Totals
Another One Bites The Dust
What was that loud bang you just heard? It was the Super Bowl window for the 49ers and the Bengals slamming shut… The 49ers are very injured and have seemingly lost a lot of the offensive and defensive mojo they’ve had the previous three seasons. Next year will be the start of a difficult rebuild as their key offensive starters are aging out of contracts and their defense will need to be retooled in order to compete. On the other side of the same coin is the Bengals who need to rebuild their defense from the ground up but are cap constrained with Burrow’s contract (he’s 100% worth it).
We see this each season in the NFL - competitive teams and betting darlings from previous seasons fall by the wayside and new contenders emerge. The emerging teams are the Commanders and the Chargers who are riding new coaching regimes and a cast of talented rookies and cheap veteran contracts in to the start of their windows.
They say that NFL stands for “Not For Long,” and for some franchises it’s also about to become “No Fun Losing”….
Early Spreads, Totals
Note: I model every matchup’s spread, total, and implied totals leveraging a data model rooted in historical (3+ seasons) worth of offensive and defensive scoring, team-specific efficiency (i.e. Red Zone TD %s), home and road performance, and variables like injuries to QBs, new head coaches, and Matt Patricia.
The only updates I generally make are to the variables - i.e. who starts at QB for the Falcons (at this point, Penix might be an upgrade over Cousins).
Columns Explained
DBF Line - the model’s calculated line for the game
Real Line - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
DBF O/U - the model’s expected point total for the game
Real O/U - the Vegas offered line for the game (usually within 0.5 points of most books)
The DELTA - the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total provided by most betting sites. The higher the delta (in either direction) the more confident we are in the bet because, according to the data, the spread/total/implied total should be lower or higher than it is.
Lines will move throughout the week, so if the DELTA (the net difference between the data model’s predicted spread/total/implied total and the actual spread/total/implied total) is small, there’s a good chance that the guidance will go to neutral or to the other team as the week evolves.
Implied Totals
For those new to implied totals (or wondering what the heck I’m talking about) - an Implied Total is the expected points for ONE team in a matchup (with a TOTAL being both teams).
DBF Data points - Interpreting Implied Totals: In the DBF Tracker above, I include the Implied Total and delta to two other important data points
Average Points Scored: Informs how many points a team scores on average against a neutral opponent
DBF Points Expected: The Model’s output for expected points including adjustments for opponent defense, weather, home/road performance, injuries
This allows us to calculate the DOUBLE DELTA - how far off both average points and DBF Expected Points an implied total is. The more negative or positive, the more… theoretically… likely it is to be OVER or UNDER.
Lines I Expect To Move This Week
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Current Spread: Philadelphia -12.5
Predicted Spread: Philadelphia -11.5 - -11
Justification: Bettors will look to the Panther’s recent performance against somewhat strong competition and I expect this line to continue to lean a bit towards Carolina.
Buffalo Bills vs. LA Rams
Current Spread: LA Rams +4.5
Predicted Spread: LA Rams +5.5 - 6
Justification: Sure, the Bills are traveling across the country to take on the LA Rams, but outside of the Philadelphia Eagles, no team is hotter in the NFL right now (The Lions are too banged up on the defensive side). My guess is bettors take the Road Favorite Bills and we see the line continue to raise throughout the week.
LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Current Total: 43
Predicted Total: 40.5 - 41.5
Justification: I’m taking the UNDER and running with it - the Chargers continue to lead the NFL in low total games (average 36 total PPG), and the Chiefs aren’t too far behind (average 40.5 PPG). Both teams are ball control, clock control offenses that rely on strong, opportunistic defenses to dictate pace of play. This strikes me as a 15-17 type final and the model agrees, expecting 37 total points.
The Thursday Night Football - Twist My Arm Pick
My hatred of betting on Thursday Night Football is well documented - from a modeling perspective, these games…
Favor the Over - 53.5% of games hit the OVER, compared to ~44% of Sunday/Monday games.
Favor The Home Team To Win and Cover - 63.6% of home teams win, compared to 54.5% of Sunday/Monday games.
The Lions are coming off a difficult win against the pesky Bears in which they suffered a myriad of defensive injuries. The Packers more than handled the Dolphins and represent a “right team, right time” chance to beat the Lions at home. The Lions are the better team, but I think the Packers not only cover (+3.5) but win.
The Total is high 51.5 points - I’m neutral on it, and lean UNDER… if it heads south of 49, then I’d consider the OVER.